U.S. Economy and its Mess

[cityboy-stl]

Today at the

And one of the first things that DOGE did was eliminate all of the oversight positions throughout government...

Keith Edwards is claiming it was Barron Trump who did this using insider information from daddy.

 

[rareboy]

It was certainly one of the Trump brats..or maybe all of them together.

In any event, we know that they and cabinet members and staff all get insider info.

 

[KaraBulut]

Canaries in the coal mines...

https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/11/business/stagflation-economy-fed-nightcap

• Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August, driving the annualized inflation rate to 2.9% — the highest since January. That was up from 2.7% in July.
• At the same time, first-time applications for unemployment benefits surged last week to their highest level in four years. An estimated 263,000 people filed initial unemployment insurance in the week ended September 6, according to Department of Labor data released Thursday.

“The whiff of stagflation is getting stronger,” Harvard economics professor Jason Furman wrote on Bluesky Thursday. “There are no good options for the Fed given the set of circumstances we’re facing.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/14/an-...vertones-of-the-dreaded-1970s-is-forming.html (firewalled)

https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/auto-loans-subprime-late-payments-1d8bb33c

Americans Are Falling Behind on Their Car Payments
Delinquency rates on subprime auto loans are at records

One of the cylinders in the U.S. economic engine is causing some sputtering.

Since the pandemic, buyers on auto-dealer lots have encountered surging sticker prices and smaller incentives from automakers to lessen the blow. To afford an automobile, more consumers, especially lower-income families, have resorted to buying used cars and taking out longer loans.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/14/jamie-dimon-auto-bankruptcies-lending-excess.html

• JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Tuesday that bankruptcies in the U.S. auto market are a sign that lending standards grew too lax in the past decade-plus.
• Dimon, the longtime leader of the largest U.S. bank by assets, was speaking about the recent collapse of auto parts firm First Brands and subprime car lender Tricolor Holdings.
• “These are early signs there might be some excess out there,” Dimon said. “If we ever have a downturn, you’re going to see quite a bit more credit issues.”

 

[rareboy]

I am not surprised that auto lending could be one of the drivers for the next recession.

North Americans (and I including Canada) have been loading up on gas guzzling behemoth trucks or luxury brand vehicles (inc. Teslas) for months now and with prices over 100K all in, the monthly payments are likely an overburden for more and more people's monthly budgets on top of housing, food and increasing basic costs.

And it will be the subprime lenders that first tier banks and investment companies have investments in that could be the trigger...not just for automobiles but for housing...again.

Just like 2008.

 

[rareboy]

And right on cue:

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/15/stock-market-today-live-updates.html?__source=androidappshare

 

[Kulindahr]

 

[Kulindahr]

 

[Kulindahr]

 

[Alistair]

 

[Alistair]

 

[Kulindahr]

^
I'd make it 2%.

 

[cityboy-stl]

Horrible for the people who desperately need food assistance, and the economy will not be happy about this either.

 

[rareboy]

MAGA stands for Make Argentina Great Again.


Trump has destroyed US soybean farmers with Chinese tariffs.
China is now buying their soybeans from Argetina.
Trump gave $40 billion to Bessent's friends and Millei to bailout Argentina.
He probably got his cut on the front end.

Trump is now allowing Argentina beef into the US, undercutting US cattle ranchers.
Trump is also getting his cut on the front end I'll bet.

 

[KaraBulut]

And the promised Trump plan to lower the price of "the groceries".

https://www.npr.org/2025/09/18/nx-s1-5534424/beef-prices-record-high-cost

Why beef prices are higher than ever (and shoppers are finally resisting)

How has the price changed since before the pandemic?
Up 51% since February 2020, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Why has the price gone up?

It's the law of supply and demand. America's beef cattle herd is the smallest in 75 years, in part because of drought. But Americans' love of hamburgers and steaks has kept demand strong — until recently.

In July, the U.S. Department of Agriculture continued to record a shrinking number of U.S. cattle and calves, forecasting that beef production would decline 4% over this year and another 2% in 2026.

Meanwhile, foreign imports are also down. Brazilian beef faces a 76% tariff. Fears about the screwworm parasite have led the USDA to block livestock from crossing from Mexico to the U.S. to safeguard the nation's food supply

 

[KaraBulut]

And it's probably illegal to repurpose 2025 DoD "research" funds to generate payroll checks for the military.

 

[rareboy]

Trump can commit any illegal act he wants. The SC said so.

And who is going to complain about paying the troops during a shut-down?

The Dems?

 

[KaraBulut]

Trump can commit any illegal act he wants. The SC said so.

And who is going to complain about paying the troops during a shut-down?

The Dems?

Trump might be exempt from prosecution. Personally, I think he won't be alive to prosecute.

His quislings are not exempt.

 

[rareboy]

But hereafter, any president is now exempt from illegal acts while president. Because the US establishment will never prosecute a sitting or past president.

Unless, with their international reputation as the most powerful democracy in the world in tatters, they just give up and start behaving totally like a second tier banana republic.
Then ex-presidents might be charged federally.

But I guarantee they will never be gound guilty because it will always revert back to impeachment, which is ostensibly the only body that can charge and convict a President.

Trump is now safe. He will die in his own bed with his children and pole dancing wife worth billions and billions stolen or collected by bribes.

 

[KaraBulut]

But hereafter, any president is now exempt from illegal acts while president. Because the US establishment will never prosecute a sitting or past president.

A Constitutional Amendment that says, "The United States will not have a King or Queen. No man is above the law." would easily pass ratification.

The Democrats still need to reorganize SCOTUS so that it can never be packed with activists of any type.

Trump is now safe. He will die in his own bed with his children and pole dancing wife worth billions and billions stolen or collected by bribes.

I used to believe that the scorched earth politics of the middle east were not the way to do things. Now that I'm older, I get the wisdom and why thousands of years of despots, autocrats and dictators has led to their way of doing things.

 

[Alistair]