15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

You know, as I read Snapcat's dire 269-269 electoral sister-kissing result...and that may be optimistic...I realize how far Dems have fallen this year. Hopefully, the debates will help turn this around for Obama, but he is is in such a freefall that if he doesn't turn the ship around, we could be looking at the Titanic...and a McCain landslide.

Funny thing is...I was nostaligic and was recently reading some of the posts in B'back's "Who Should be Veep" thread that ran for like 8 months. As we debated Veeps, so many folks dropped in, including myself, to posts reminders that Vice Presidents don't count...that they are almost irrelevant in regards to an election and that a VP hasn't made an election difference since LBJ in 1960 joining JFK. Now, as we look at this election of '08, it was that question that B'back posed, "Who Should be Veep?" that has been the defining moment in this election. Obama went the traditional route...be wise, show solid judgement in a traditional older man who can do no harm. I think Obama had short-sighted objectives: show you can make a good choice, and then move on in the campaign because it's ultimately about me (not the VP). Then, McCain blew Americans away....a grand slam that showed boldness and courage and left a lasting, re-defining message. He used a counter-strategy by grabbing a mega-large swing voter segment and yet secured and motivated his base at the same time. And he stole the attention from Obama, which had proven so difficult for McCain and Hillary previously. Palin took the shine off of Obama. And I go back to B'back question, "who should be Veep?" and realize all of McCain's brilliance in his VP decison would have never come to fruition if Obama had simply answered that question differently....will this prove to be a blunder for the history books?

 

[RandomAccess]

Re: The State of the Presidential Race

...
Florida: Dem (1,725,264) - Rep (1,858,287)
I’ve always said that this is a state tailor-made for a McCain win. Yet he hasn’t managed to seal the deal just yet. McCain’s lead averages less than 5 points here, even at this late date. While I’m personally skeptical that Florida can be flipped, I still think that McCain will win this state by a small margin.
...

Consider the deal sealed. (say that 3-times fast!) The recent trial court decision regarding the state's constitutional ban on gay adoption will have the net effect of handing the state to McCain on a silver platter. The timing of the decision, tied with the fact that we Floridian gays didn't know it was happening, makes it blatantly clear that the decision was precisely timed as a ploy to energize/mobilize Florida's evangelical voters. It was precisely the "fix" Republicans needed to shore up Florida in McCain's favor.

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

If McCain trips and falls of a stage like Bob Dole in 1996, the race is over.

I didn't even know about Dole tripping off a stage. I'll have to look that up.

Not that I wish McCain any harm, but if the man would take a tumble off a stage, or something of the sort, then I think it will finally begin to sink in to the American people that Palin is next in charge to take over.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

And, Snapcat, you failed to mention Wisconsin.

***Snip***

MINNESOTA -- TIE -- Star Tribune -- Yep, this one-time liberal icon is now a tie. Is McCain getting a bounce from his convention being there just as Obama did in Colorado?

For now, Pollster still has Obama up by 6 & 7 points in those two states. Should that not hold then Obama is toast. I'll stick with them going Obama's way at this time, but will certainly monitor future polling. I know McCain wants Wisconsin badly.

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

For those that are interested, here is footage of the Bob Dole stage fall we were discussing:

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I'm still not sure if Palin was a good choice for McCain.

Okay...that had to be some B'back wit/sarcasm that went over my head. Because if you were literal, then...uh...hello?....USA to B'back....have you noticed the tidal wave of shift in public opinion on McCain? Gramps just cleaned Obama's clock, and has made one of the most stunning rallies in history...and, you're still not sure?!?!?!?! There are lots of things I'm not sure of....but, of this I'm certain, he found the one person hidden under the last rock overturned that could resurrect his lethargic campaign--who else could have had this impact?


And now more polls:

MINNESOTA -- Obama+2 -- SurveyUSA -- The North Star state continues to hit battleground status as the second poll today show is essentially a tie (in fact, the Star Tribune posted earlier actually says it is a tie).

IOWA -- Obama +12 -- Des Moines Register -- Obama is McLovin' this poll as he finds himself up by a dozen in the Hawkeye State.

 

[naked gent]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I'm still not sure if Palin was a good choice for McCain.

Okay...that had to be some B'back wit/sarcasm that went over my head. Because if you were literal, then...uh...hello?....USA to B'back....have you noticed the tidal wave of shift in public opinion on McCain

Sammie I think you're being a bit premature in your criticism of B'back.

Perhaps you're more caught up in the Palin whirlwind than you ought to be.

As I have admitted to you as of today she looks to be a great choice but, as I think B'back believes, by election day that might not be the case and since McCain didn't pick her to help him in the polls of September but to help him in the election of November you may be jumping the gun here a bit.

I concede my desire for her to crash and burn but that aside if you're predicting that when all is said and done she'll will have been proven to be a good choice then say so.

B'back says not and for the record I'm with him.

 

[construct]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

There's also a new Utah poll from Desert News. Oh, who cares?

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Sammie "tidal wave of public opinion" on McCain? Obama campaign in 'freefall'? "bold and courageous" move by McCain? "biggest blunder" in Presidential history?

I'll agree that Palin's selection changed the race and maybe saved McCain's bacon, but come on, don't you think you're exaggerating just a bit?

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

And I go back to B'back question, "who should be Veep?" and realize all of McCain's brilliance in his VP decison would have never come to fruition if Obama had simply answered that question differently....will this prove to be a blunder for the history books?

Initially, I agreed with your assertion that had Obama selected Clinton, McCain would not have selected Palin. Upon further reflection, I no longer agree. Palin would have been an equally smart choice to counter Clinton. All those Republicans cheering Hillary's name would have been booing instead if she were VP. And think of the McCain rhetoric: "Palin is a real woman who really understands white working Americans. Hillary is another elite, Yale lawyer, Washington insider. Palin has executive experience. Hillary has a few years in the Senate."

 

[construct]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Sammie "tidal wave of public opinion" on McCain? Obama campaign in 'freefall'? "bold and courageous" move by McCain? "biggest blunder" in Presidential history?

I'll agree that Palin's selection changed the race and maybe saved McCain's bacon, but come on, don't you think you're exaggerating just a bit?

Some of that appears to me also to be a bit extravagant, but the race has narrowed in all the recently polled Obama states except Iowa. Some of that has been undecideds moving toward McCain, but a little of it is weakening in Obama's numbers. That's essentially the same movement we see in the widening gap between the two in the McCain states.

Perhaps Richardson or Byah might have had an impact on NM or IN, but that's second guessing. I'm happy with Biden. Anyway, I don't know what good it does to kvetch about it now.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Here's another thing to consider ....... looking at all of these polls, how many of the "undecideds" do you all think are going to swing Obama's way?

I don't think too many.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Syntax, you have such an ugly avatar...notice how I went with beauty--LOL--who says gays are shallow?

Okay, to all my critics, who condemn JUB's voice of moderation and reason, allow me to explain...God knows I realize any armchair quarterbacking that doesn't include kneeling to Obama is so quickly dismissed that it must require comprehensive explanation.

First, let's climb into the Sammie On the Record time machine: Several areas where I was always consistent on JUB... 1) Since Feb, I said this race will be razor tight in Nov. 2) Obama should pick Hillary as VP, but I doubt he has the courage; 3) If Obama picks a man, McCain would be best served to select a woman, but I doubt he's smart enough to roll the dice and 4) Within 2 minutes of the unofficial announcement that Palin was the choice, I declared the move as utterly brilliant and a game changer. I stand by all 4 of those opinions.

Beyond that, I rather look at politics analytically and with minimal emotion. I'm just not a liberal or a conservative...in fact, in recent years, I've grown to detest both sides with the same vigor that each of those sides feels about their opposite. But, yeah, while there is still a little more Democrat juice left in my veins, it's barely enough for me to walk around with blinders on. Hence, in reponse to being caught in the Palin 'whirlwinds', hardly so. I crunch through alot of numbers, and I don't have to go near Hurricane Sarah to know the impact she's having simply from the radar screen. I've already felt like, N.G., that I've said she was an excellent choice for McCain, but if you need me to say it again, that's fine....Palin is a damn good choice (I was about to say, Read My Lips..., then I remembered how haunting those words proved to be for Bush41)! Yes, I would like her to fail, and there is still a chance that she can by virtue of some major gaffe/scandal. It was a high risk/high reward decison...a good move at the time for McCain.

Will she be Dan Quayle and go into the witness protection program or will she be LBJ and deliver us an unlikely president? Obviously, the road to November 4 will dictate that answer. However, based merely on the political science, she is everything McCain could have hoped for and more. As I asked in the response to B'back, who else could have McCain un-earthed that would have impacted America as Palin has? Anybody? Anybody? Bueller? I've heard no names anywhere! And what is a veep ultimately responsible for (yep, there's the serve if the leader is incapacitated or dies requirement) but being that person who can help you win. McCain's campaign was nearly comatose, and she revitalized it in every way that matters--new swing voters, energized base, fundraising, large enthusiastic crowds, and they've "owned" the media which had been nearly impossible to do up until now. My God jubbers, what more could a Veep selection be expected to do? He is pushing against history which dictates that the other party should win given the economy and war, and Palin has catapulted him ahead in state, national and electoral projections. Again, is there anything more you could expect from her? Can you really strategically, even with the 'bluest' of partisanship, say that this was NOT a good choice. Every presidential party nominee dreams of a VP elevating their campaign to these kinds of heights, but rarely does it ever happen. Even if McCain loses in November, which I'm still predicting to be the case as I think the debates may turn the tide, I will still say Palin was a good choice (again, unless there is some big gaffe or a scandal related to him poorly vetting her). If McCain loses, it doesn't make her a bad choice; in fact, if Pawlenty or Crist or Ridge were on the ticket today, they would have never experienced the ressurection and rally that has gone on today. He would have merely gone out with a wimper, now, if he loses, he will have gone out with a bang knowing that he did try to mix it up.

I know alot of Obama supporters are disappointed with the current state of the election. I'm not thrilled with it either. But, I can admire the fight coming out of a prohibitive underdog, who might just pull a monumental upset in November. I'm sorry to say, but alot of you, based on the barrage of Palin hate posted on JUB, are simply bitter and jeolous that McCain out foxed Obama. Now, many of you show Palin the same tasteless and sometimes irrational disrespect that many showed toward Obama since he emerged as a force.

And Syntax, you may think I'm exaggerating as I'm sure you cringed when hearing the terms I used in the earlier post. However, if McCain wins (and he would win if the election were Sept 14th), then those are the terms you're going to see in the media and history books on down the road. The 'tidal wave' has been clear when you compare pre-Palin to post-Palin poll numbers, state and national. In nearly every state polled (even the ones Obama leads in), Palin is typically polling with easily the highest favorability over McCain, Obama and Biden. America loves her (me? I just roll my eyes when I hear her). Obama has been in a freefall...in case you haven't seen all the state polls I've displayed in this thread...and I'm still waiting for it to bottom out...thought that would have happened already, but hopefully will soon. And if Obama does lose, it will indeed make the Hillary decison one of the all time greatest political blunders.

Think what you want about having Hillary on the ticket, but I find all of that laughable. And so does every Republican I've talked to, heard or seen. They feared her most. The wind that you heard outside your house around 1am EST on August 30th was not the weather, but a collective sigh being heard simultaneouly from Republicans around the country. From Bill Bennett to Mike Huckabee to Newt Gingrich, they were all incredulous that Obama did not select Hillary. She would whip their ass, and they all knew it. She was the perfect balance to Obama's ticket in personality and voter profiles. And Hillary would have chewed Palin alive...Biden, being a male and basically invisible as a skilled politician, made Palin an asset, but with Hills, Palin would have looked weak and lacking in assertiveness. The very things that the public is currently ignoring about Palin would have been magnified to the Dems advantage with Hillary as her rival. I don't think McCain would have chosen to have a 'bitch fight' between Palin and Hillary as we know who would have won that (I'm sorry, I couldn't resist the bitch fight thing).

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Here's another thing to consider ....... looking at all of these polls, how many of the "undecideds" do you all think are going to swing Obama's way?

I don't think too many.

I don't either. I think the 'race' factor is one reason they are Undecided. Many were just waiting for a reason to vote R. I could be wrong, though...

Hey, some Yankee polls to share with you....

NEW JERSEY -- Obama +9 -- Bergen -- The flirtatious Keystone State looking a little better for Obama.

DELEWARE -- Obama +12 -- Research2000 -- Small wonder that the Blue Hen State is going for Obama...Biden may be disappointed that his +12 lead here is puney compared to the Barraccuda's 30+ point lead in Alaska.

Uh...and Utah...construct, that was my opinion,too...why bother?

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

NEW JERSEY -- Obama +9 -- Bergen -- The flirtatious Keystone State looking a little better for Obama.

DELEWARE -- Obama +12 -- Research2000 -- Small wonder that the Blue Hen State is going for Obama...Biden may be disappointed that his +12 lead here is puney compared to the Barraccuda's 30+ point lead in Alaska.

Uh...and Utah...construct, that was my opinion,too...why bother?

Gotcha! NJ is the Garden State. PA is the Keystone State.

The "Blue Hen State"? WTF??????

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Gotcha! NJ is the Garden State. PA is the Keystone State.

The "Blue Hen State"? WTF??????

Shhhh! Don't tell him. He's on a roll.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

To quote Ross Perot, "is that what this is all about...are we just playing gotcha..." LOL....Hey, I had just written a tirade and was tired...keystone, garden state, whatever, they're all damn yankees!

In regards to Deleware, which has a number of aliases:

“Blue Hen State”: This nickname was given to Delaware after the fighting Blue Hen Cocks that were carried with the Delaware Revolutionary War Soldiers for entertainment during Cock fights.

Um...I would love to see a football game between the Deleware Bule Hen Cocks and the South Carolina Gamecocks. Btw, my Dawgs shaved the Carolina Cocks 14-7 on Saturday. Don't look now, but my UGa Dawgs and Snapcat's UK Wildcats are both 3-0 this season.

Notice in my earlier Delaware blurb, I mentioned 'small wonder'...that's one of DE's newer nicknames.

“Small Wonder”: This nickname is basically a new nickname. It was given to Delaware due to its size and the contributions it has made to our country as a whole and the beauty of Delaware.

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Syntax, you have such an ugly avatar...notice how I went with beauty--LOL--who says gays are shallow?


And Syntax, you may think I'm exaggerating as I'm sure you cringed when hearing the terms I used in the earlier post. However, if McCain wins (and he would win if the election were Sept 14th), then those are the terms you're going to see in the media and history books on down the road. The 'tidal wave' has been clear when you compare pre-Palin to post-Palin poll numbers, state and national. In nearly every state polled (even the ones Obama leads in), Palin is typically polling with easily the highest favorability over McCain, Obama and Biden. America loves her (me? I just roll my eyes when I hear her). Obama has been in a freefall...in case you haven't seen all the state polls I've displayed in this thread...and I'm still waiting for it to bottom out...thought that would have happened already, but hopefully will soon. And if Obama does lose, it will indeed make the Hillary decison one of the all time greatest political blunders.

Sammie my avatar is an expression of who I am. You can call me "ugly" but I know that I am beautiful.

Seriously. I find your analysis filled with "if" "if" "if" and more "if". Sure, the race has tightened and the Palin selection is the only reason for it. It was a smart move politically, but I have little confidence that McCain was behind it or that he "unearthed" Palin. The selection of Palin was perceived as a "Hail Mary." Clearly, the pass was completed. We'll have to see if the Republicans can make it to the End Zone. There's no doubt that Palin is the wide receiver and will be carrying McCain over the line. To me, that says a lot about the Republican candidate for President. He's not courageous; he's a desperate coward who would sacrifice his integrity and the safety of this country to win an election by allowing this fraud to be his VP. IMO, you diminish the possibility that this "kooky wacko" may become President of the US. IMO, he is not too old to be President. However, John McCain is an old and sick man. That is cold, hard fact.

I've looked at all the polls you have posted and see little reason to conclude that the Obama campaign is in "freefall." At this point in the campaign, [STRIKE]McCain[/STRIKE] Palin has gained some ground and Obama's support has slipped. Yet, his campaign remains competitive in all the states that he needs to win. He raised $66 million in August (including $10 million after the Palin announcement) and welcomed 500,000 new donors. This election is far from over and I recognize that you know it.

I'll speak for myself here, but I do not kneel at Obama and, like you, have believed that this election would be razor thin. I'm surprised that you buy into and propagate this myth that (most?) posters in CE&P are unthinking Obama worshippers. In my months posting here, I've seen great enthusiasm for Obama, but little "kneeling" before Obama.

 

[RandomAccess]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

First, let's climb into the Sammie On the Record time machine: Several areas where I was always consistent on JUB... 1) Since Feb, I said this race will be razor tight in Nov. 2) Obama should pick Hillary as VP, but I doubt he has the courage; 3) If Obama picks a man, McCain would be best served to select a woman, but I doubt he's smart enough to roll the dice and 4) Within 2 minutes of the unofficial announcement that Palin was the choice, I declared the move as utterly brilliant and a game changer. I stand by all 4 of those opinions.

Yeah-yeah. . . even a blind squirrel finds an acorn now and then.

 

[hotatlboi]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

sammie, your posts are always brilliant I have to say.

I totally agree that Palin was a game changer and a brilliant move by McCain. But we are still sort of in the honeymoon phase. We have yet to see if the intense focus on Palin will stick (McCain would love that) or if the dialogue will shift back to more of a discussion of policies (that is what Obama wants). The debates will be key for Obama in re-establishing the message he wants to be talking about, namely who has the better plan to run the country.